The escalation of the Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have sent shockwaves through global energy markets. For the European construction sector, the situation evokes memories of early 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered an unprecedented surge in energy prices that quickly fed through to the cost of building materials.
Business sentiment from March 2026 suggests supply chains are holding up – for now. According to the European Commission’s construction survey, material and equipment shortages have stayed subdued across most countries covered by the Euroconstruct network examined in the latest reading. This stands in stark contrast to 2021–2022, when material shortages spiked across Europe. The construction supply chain has not yet been disrupted – but the 2022 episode demonstrated that such disruptions can emerge with a lag of several months once energy costs begin to bite.
Price expectations are starting to turn, but the adjustment is still partial. Selling-price expectations among construction firms – drawn from the same business survey (European Commission) – have not yet broadly incorporated the new energy environment. Most countries still show subdued price expectations. However, preliminary results from the most recent Austrian survey wave – not yet included in the published data – point to a significant upward shift. The next publication will show if this will be a general European trend. This would suggest that firms are beginning to reprice, and that a broader adjustment across European markets may follow in the coming months.
The energy shock is already visible in market level data – and significant. Front-month Brent crude futures averaged around USD 98/bbl in March 2026, approaching the 2022 annual average of 99 USD/bbl and well above the 62 USD/bbl level observed at the end of 2025. The price momentum is even higher compared to 2022.
“The current Hormuz disruption has been considerable on the oil side, but far less dramatic for gas compared to 2022”
Two important qualifications temper the comparison with 2022. First, natural gas prices – which matter far more for the production of key building materials such as cement, bricks, and glass – remain at around 40 EUR/MWh, after a short peak in March 2026. This is a fraction of the 2022 crisis levels (peak: 339 EUR/MWh, annual average: 133 EUR/MWh). As long as gas markets remain comparatively calm, the pass-through to construction material costs will be significantly more contained than in 2022.
Second, the oil futures forward curve suggests that markets view the current price spike as temporary. Comparing the term structure as of 14 April 2026 to the pre-crisis curve from 31 December 2025 reveals a pronounced but narrowing wedge: while front-month prices are elevated by roughly 35 USD/bbl, the gap shrinks steadily along the curve at price levels at around 70 USD/bbl. Markets are pricing a transitory disruption, not a structural shift.
To sum, the Hormuz shock is real and already visible in energy prices, but it is structurally different from the 2022 Ukraine crisis. The key variable to watch is natural gas: if gas prices begin to follow oil upward, the construction sector should brace for a repeat of the 2022 cost spiral. For now, the forward markets point to a contained, temporary shock. Despite these qualifiactions, the energy price shock will start to show up in European construction prices in the coming months.
Note: Euroconstruct covers the countries Austria, Belgium, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portgual, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom.
