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  COUNTRY OF THE MONTH - July


PROSPECTS FOR THE DUTCH CONSTRUCTION MARKETS 2006-2008

In 2005, the Dutch economy grew by 1.1 percent. This means a slowdown compared to the +1.7 that was registered in 2004. In 2005, the most important contribution to economic growth was made by the export of goods and services. Exports (exclusive of energy) increased by 6.3 percent. Another important contribution to economic growth came from private consumption. Over the past two years, growth in consumers expenditure completely came to a standstill. However, since the middle of 2005, the consumption of households picked up again. Over the year as a whole, private consumption grew by 0.3 percent. This might seem just an insignificant adjustment, but after two years of decrease and stagnation any growth of this major part of GDP is an important sign. Private investment (exclusive of investment in dwellings) couldn't hold on to the regained vitality of 2004. In 2005 growth fell back to a meagre 0.3 percent. The revival of this quantity in 2004 was the precursor of the economic recovery in that year; the subsequent stagnation in 2005 was the main cause of the hesitant economic situation in the year behind.

Nowadays, the construction sector develops more successfully than the economy as a whole. Construction output grew in 2005 by 2.5 percent. In 2006, building production is estimated to grow further by 4.0 percent. In 2007 and 2008, growth of construction output is forecast to slow down somewhat to 2.7 and 2.1 percent. It is important to notice that from 2006 on, all major parts of the construction market contribute to the growth of the industry.

Construction Output and GDP 1998-2008

The positive development of the construction sector is strongly supported by the booming market for new residential construction. In 2004 and 2005, the number of new housing completions recovered from less than 60,000 in 2003 to 67,000. For this year and next year, there is still room for further growth. In the period 2006-2008, 75,000 to 77,500 housing completions per year are projected. In terms of production value, for 2006, 7.0 percent growth is projected, followed by 4.0 in 2007 and 1.3 percent in 2008. Repair and maintenance (including renovation) of houses is forecast to grow in a more moderate way. For 2006, a rise in production value of 3.3 percent is projected, slowing down to 1.9 percent in the years thereafter.

In particular, new non-residential construction lost ground in recent years. The recession urged companies to heavily cut in business investment plans. Production volume on this part of the construction market lost more than 25 percent of its value in three years. This heavy reaction is an average result for new non-residential construction at large. Not every segment in this market suffered as badly from the recession. On the contrary, two public financed sectors showed remarkable progression. Construction for education and health care has strongly increased. On the other hand, construction activities for the private sector even developed much worse. Despite the (modest) economic recovery, new non-residential construction in the private sectors decreased further in 2005. Especially 'office buildings' again lost a substantial part of its production volume (- 16 percent). In the period 2006 to 2008, a recovery is foreseen for all parts of the privately financed sector. Repair and maintenance of non-residential buildings was far less affected by the past recession than new construction. In 2005, this sector resumed growth by 1.7 percent. In the coming years, the growth rate will accelerate to around 2.5 percent.

New construction in civil engineering proved to be sensitive for the economic recession of the years behind. In 2005, no recovery could be registered. Only this year and the years to come can await new growth. However, with a forecasted growth of about 1 percent per year, recovery won't be very exuberant. Together with a somewhat higher growth in maintenance and renovation, the sector will recover from the stagnation in previous years by about 1.5 percent. Government funds for new road infrastructure and maintenance will rise again, just like budgets for new investments and repair and maintenance in the regular railway system.




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