BIPE

Mail: patrick.delamorvonnais@bipe.fr
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The latest estimates published by INSEE point to a significant upward adjustment for French population numbers. The unique position of the country with respect to its European neighbors raises a number of considerations about its economic prospects and the way companies need to plan for their growth.

The French National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) recently published a series of results that shed new light on French population trends, including data from the first survey to use the new census system and the preliminary results for 2004. The estimates indicate that, as of 1 January 2004, the population of metropolitan France was 60.2 million, with 25.4 million households.

The new figures have led to a substantial upward revision of the estimates made in the previous two years, both of which were based on the 1999 census. The population of metropolitan France thus rises by 453,000 and the number of households by 448,000. To explain these increases INSEE relied on average annual variations in the population over this five-year period. The population increase is thus estimated at 341,000 people annually. Natural growth accounted for 226,000 and net migration for 82,000, and a "statistical adjustment" was made for 33,000.

This is in a certain sense an admission that the 1999 census underestimated the real situation. Even without taking into account the "adjustment", net annual population growth was 308,000 over the 1999-2003 period, a much higher figure than the projections made in 2003 based on the previous census (+251,000).

The discrepancy is even greater for households. Their average size was estimated at 2.37 as of 1 January 2004, whereas INSEE had projected 2.39 for the same date. According to the hypothesis adopted on household dissolutions in the 1999-2003 period, the annual increase in the number of households seems to fall within a range of 269,000 to 317,000, whereas it had been estimated at 241,000 in trend projections.

Clearly, these revisions are significant not only in absolute terms but also, and especially, in terms of variation (annual increase in population and households).