9th June 2017
9th June 2017
A GDP growth of 1.5% to 2.0% per annum in the period 2017-2019 is projected for the 19 Euroconstruct countries, almost unchanged
from the previous projection in November 2016 (Barcelona). European economy is set to follow a moderate growth path, stimulated
by still relatively low oil prices, the weaker euro exchange rate and the ECBs stimulus policy (quantitative easing).
In most countries domestic consumer demand is increasing, stimulated by declining unemployment. Investment has started to
pick up, particularly since households and companies can still secure inexpensive financing, and foreign demand is developing
favourably. However, the pace of recovery remains relatively moderate due to the sluggish implementation of reforms as well
as long-standing weak growth trends. In general, the European economic growth potential is lower than it was before the crisis,
due to the population ageing and declining productivity growth.
The recovery of the European economy has boosted construction output growth. In 2016 construction output expanded by 2.5%, 0.5%-point stronger than was expected half a year ago. The volume of construction output is forecast to increase by 2.9% this year and by 2.4% in 2018, both above the previous projections in Barcelona (+2.1% in 2017 and +2.2% in 2018). Thanks to the stronger economic upswing than expected half a year ago, very strong improvement in consumer confidence and the continuing loose monetary policy, construction demand develops stronger than was expected, resulting in an expansion of the construction output by 8% in 2016-2018, compared to the forecast of 6.5% in Barcelona. Thereafter the outturn is expected to moderate in 2019 (+2%), which is slightly below the Barcelona figure (+2.1%).